I’ve been rereading Ray Kurzweil’s The Singularity is Near, and this just screams progress acceleration to me. According to Bloomberg, lithium-ion prices dropped by 87% in less than 10 years, and 13% from 2018–2019 alone. Analysts keep having to revise estimates down because researchers are hitting milestones earlier than anticipated.
At some point, you’ve got to assume there’s a floor where the need to innovate will flatten as prices are competitive, but who really knows. Refinements in technology and materials could push the prices lower and still improve efficiencies.
I think we’re much more likely to overestimate the time to some of these milestones rather than underestimate them. If we can keep society from collapsing, I’m really excited to see what happens in the next 10 years.